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The aged-care development pipeline: where demand still outpaces supply

22 June 20268 min read

Regional NSW and Queensland continue to see shortfalls. We map the postcodes where new beds are viable and the planning triggers to start early.

Key takeaways

  • Regional NSW and Queensland still show clear bed shortfalls.
  • Planning and workforce constraints, not demand, set the timetable.
  • Early operator engagement de-risks the whole feasibility.

Where the shortfalls are

Demand modelling continues to show undersupply across regional New South Wales and much of coastal and inland Queensland, driven by ageing local populations and limited new commissioning over the past decade.

Metropolitan markets are more mixed: several corridors are now adequately supplied, and additional beds there compete directly with recently completed stock.

Planning triggers to start early

Aged-care development timelines are dominated by approvals and workforce availability rather than construction. Begin site due diligence, traffic and acoustic assessment, and pre-lodgement engagement well before design is fixed.

Confirm ambulance and hospital access, staff parking, and public transport for shift workers — these routinely become conditions of consent.

Engaging operators early

An operator's care model determines room mix, communal area, and servicing requirements. Designing first and finding an operator later almost always leads to costly redesign.

Bring a preferred operator into feasibility at concept stage and let their model shape the brief. It shortens approvals and materially improves the lease you can sign.

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